Thursday, March 20, 2008

Wind of Change ... Quake of Fluke ?

Flip a coin in the air. Odds of a Head would be 50:50. Flip two coins in the air. Odds of both coins being Head would be 1 out of 3. Flip 10.9 million coins in the air. Odds of all coins being Head would almost be negligible. Greater would be the odds of 1/3 of them being the same, but still very small, yet mathematically possible.

After reading so many analyses regarding the shocking result of Malaysia Election 2008, my logical sense opined that, whilst the contributing factor to the unexpected result was the "wind of change", the deciding factor, though, could have been the "quake of fluke".

The protest votes, the emotional votes, the angry votes, etc, are always going to be there. Current hot issues like inflation, crime rate, corruption, uneven distribution of wealth, ethnic right, etc would and had caused the wind of change to blow more votes towards the opposition. But, my logical and common senses, and so did most political analysts, would have it that, BN, by losing more seats, retaining a slim 2/3 majority in the parliament, losing 1 or 2 more states to the opposition would in itself stretched the odds a great deal.

What probably tipped the scale over was: there were these people who had been voting for the ruling party of BN all along. This time round, they were no doubt swayed by the wind of change. They wanted to voice their dissatisfaction to the ruling party. However, they would still prefer the ruling party to rule (I would think that stability should still be a top concern), albeit with a diminished majority. Thinking others who last voted for the ruling party would continue to vote for them, these people went to the polling station and mark an "X" for the opposition. However, fluke do happen and had happened. Everybody else who last voted for the ruling party had the same thought and did the same. The seabed shook a little bit, waves created, coupled with a strong wind above the sea surface, waves of 6 or 7 storeys height hit the shore (I always thought devastation of tsunami is too severe to describe the aftermath of the election on Malaysia political scene; parties within BN would probably feel like being hit by tsunami, though). With all the right buttons pushed, what was meant to be pushed towards the edge of the cliff had actually fallen over the cliff.

On the same night as the election, in the FA Cup football match between Barnsley and Chelsea, Barnsley
, whose financial worth is probably thousands time less than Chelsea, were given little odds to win. Yet, wind of the day blew in favour Barnsley, Barnsley keeper stood just in the right position through out the match to make all the right saves, the contour of the football pitch dent in all the right way to favour Barnsley and against Chelsea, Chelsea was at their worst of luck in their kicks on the ball, and thousand and one other possibilities turned out in Barnsley’s favour. However small was the odd of these happening at the same time, it happened, and history was made. Barnsley won, and advance to the sem-final. Fluke? But, then again, allegation of football matches being fixed is always rife. With the amount of money involved in the betting ring, the theory never seemed far-fetched.

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