Monday, March 31, 2008

1, 2 ? Or 1, 3, 2 ?

When it comes to politic, I am but a frog in the well. However, a limited view is still a view. There’s something to be observed and rambled about.

What comes after One? Two? Or Three?

The recent Malaysia Election 2008 had thrown open a wide range of eventualities for our political system. People are already talking about the emergence of two-party political system, which provide check and balance. Whilst I look forward hopefully to that scenario, I do suspect our next step from the previous monolithic party power structure might not be two, but three.

Let me do a roller coaster loop with my train of thought on the possible evolution of our political parties:
  1. BN and its component parties. The current BN coalition and its individual political party will undergo soul- searching exercises for months to come. And they would have to contemplate their next step out from the devastation of last election. Whatever steps they are going to make, maybe apart from Gerakan, it will be almost impossible for UMNO, MCA and MIC to steer away from being a party representing a particular race. Whilst it’s hard to imagine how UMNO will open its door to non-Malays, it’s harder still to imagine how non-Malays will join them. The same applies to MCA and MIC. Therefore, the next most probable direction is towards a stronger integration of political ideals, geared towards all Malaysian, and not a particular race, between these component parties. In theory, it would resemble a single party with different division for each race, fighting for the good of all Malaysians.
  1. DAP and PKR. Both parties are perceived to be multi-racial. Theoretically, a coalition between these two parties should be relatively easy to achieve, as they both seem to fight for the same political ideals.

  1. PAS. With its strong religious theme of Islam, reservation from non-Muslims (or even a portion of the Malay-Muslims) will always be deterrence in any kind of coalition, more so a coalition with PAS as the leader. Assuming our percentage of Muslim citizen do not increase dramatically, PAS will remain a minority party in terms of membership. Therefore, it’s probably impossible for them to form a government at the federal level by itself.

Now, assuming BN is able to successfully restructure itself and emerge as a stronger political unit for all Malaysians, its main contender is and will be the DAP-PKR coalition, if they too are able to work out a co-operational framework. Assuming these two coalitions will grow into equal strength in terms of voters’ loyalty, PAS will probably play the role of kingmaker and have a choice of joining either coalition. Thus, a three-party political system.

However, be it a two-party system or a three-party system, these parties should bear one thing in mind, i.e. they are fighting for the chance to serve the Malaysians and to build a better Malaysia. So, go, make Malaysia a beautiful place to live, to grow old and to grow up in. I am an optimist.

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